Sunday, 19 April 2020

19th April 2020 - Boats and Booze...

Thought for the day:"My wife stole the blankets last night – But I recovered"


LINK JOHNS HOPKINS
Office of National Statistics 

Thought of taking a trip somewhere today ..


I was asked about how other parents were managing - t is okay for us - the kids are miles away and have kids of their own ...


And for something different ...

Flight of the Bumblebee - Melodica man

Too good not to have another one ....

Barber of Seville...

Finally had the package of cardboard boxes arrive so Susie can post off the hats. Srted teh boat yesterday and all seems to be good - pumped tyres up and cleaned throughout...








Will be sorry to see her go - but she was just sitting in the warehouse and unlikely to use again.
Makes a lot of room to work in now.

Meanwhile

Serenades Number 6 : The band played Waltzing Matilda....


And so - keep healthy and well ...
Cheers :

Saturday, 18 April 2020

18th April 2020 - Ancient Charges - And forgetfulness

Thought for the day :"Sperm cells look like commas and apostrophes – because they often interrupt periods and lead to contractions…"


LINK JOHNS HOPKINS
Office of National Statistics 



For my Masonic Friends - a good colleague John Watson - Provincial Almoner for West Wales penned this missive....

Charge after Corvid 9
Brethren, as you have passed through the month of your lockin, let me congratulate you on being a sensible member of our ancient and honourable institution. Ancient no doubt it is, as having subsisted from time when we used to meet, and honourable it must be acknowledged to be, as by a natural tendency it con­duces to make safe those who are obedient to its guideline. Indeed, no institution can boast a more solid foundation than that on which Freemasonry rests - the practice of every safe and social distancing. And to so high an eminence has its credit been ad­vanced that every day Grand Officers them­selves, have not thought it derogatory to their dignity to exchange the black shoe for the carpet slipper, have supported our situation and not joined in our assemblies.
As a Freemason, let me recommend to your most serious contemplation the Volume of Government Guidance, charging you to consider it as the unerring standard of truth and safety, to regulate your actions by the information it contains. Therein you will be taught the important duties you owe to your wife, to your neighbour, and to yourself. To your wife, by never mentioning her choice of evening television remembering that before coronavirus that was her company for at least three nights a week, and by looking up to Her in this emergency for comfort and support. To your neighbour, keeping your distance and not returning his gardening tools you borrowed two months ago in case you may be passing on the virus, by helping him without detriment to your own health, and by doing to him as in similar cases you would wish he would do to you. And to yourself, by such a course of discipline as may best conduce to the preservation of your safety and sanity thereby enabling you to once again at some time be of service to the Brethren and Freemasonry.
As a member of the Province, I am to enjoin you to be exemplary in the discharge of your safety duties, by never exiting your house without due cause or by any act that may have a tendency to risk the health of a Brother, by paying due obedience to the guidance of any  authority which has for a time become the place of your residence or afford you its protection, and above all, by never losing sight of the allegiance due to the Grand Lodge of your native land, ever remembering that its daily updates shows their in­dissoluble attachment towards you since your initiation.
As an individual, let me recommend the practice of every domestic' as well as public safety: let Prudence direct you, Temperance sustain you, Brethren sup­port you, and common sense be the guide of all your actions. Be especially careful to maintain your health in its fullest splendour, which you have already amply illustrated by sobriety and temperance.
Still, as a Freemason, there are other excellences of character to which your attention may be peculiarly and forcibly directed:  the foremost of these is safety. Safety consists in an inviolable adherence to the guidance you have received never improperly to expose yourself to any of those risks which have now been, or may at any future period be, entrusted to you to keep, and cautiously to avoid all occasions which may inadvertently lead you so to do. Your understanding must be exemplified by a strict observance of the Guidance of UGLE, by ad­hering to the directions of the document, by never attempting to evade or otherwise evading the issues raised, and by refraining from recommending anyone to a disregard of them. Your compliance must be proved by a strict observance of our directions, by prompt attention to all coughs and temperatures, by modest and correct demeanour in the virtual lodge, by abstaining from every topic of negativity.
And as a last general recommendation, let me exhort you to dedicate yourself to such measures as may at once enable you to survive, so as to be useful to man­kind, and not just an ornament to the human race; to study more especially those television short information films as may be shown before your favourite soap opera, and without neglecting the ordinary duties around the house, to endeavour to make a daily advancement towards that glorious day when we all meet again.
From the very commendable attention you appear to have given to this charge, I am led to hope you will duly appreciate the value of safety, and indelibly imprint on your heart the sacred dictates of patience, of sensibility, and of survival

I also saw this - 
On a more challenging picture - I saw this - find the face ....


And in summary of how the world is today - We seem to have Trump calling upon the states to "liberate" themselves from the Lock-downs...


After first claiming that it was his sole authority to open the country again (challenged by the States who claim the authority) and then back-tracking and saying that it was down to the States to do so (States claim "passing the Buck without paying the Bucks") he now pronounces upon the protests in states - (they are mainly Democratic Governors) so as to undermine...
What a way to govern...




Oh, and of course we have to bring in the 2nd amendment - the right to bear arms, because that is of course relevent !!

Of course we are still trying to get to the stage of testing essential workers, let alone patients and general population - with the speculation that there may not be immunity following recover.

So Shutdown Serenade No 5: Out of Kit this time as more modern...

 I forget !!!

Cheers :


Friday, 17 April 2020

17th April 2020 - Ffynnon Wen, videos, and storage

Thought for the day :"Someone stole all the lamps in my house – I was delighted !"



LINK JOHNS HOPKINS
Office of National Statistics 


Just because !!!

The Expert


On lighter matters - Day 3 of the Shutdown Seranades... The Vicar and the Frog..


And since we cannot move at the moment - Krysia sent some photos of the gradens at Ffynnon Wen..






Ho Hum....

So I did another video - Bothvar ...
Shutdown Seranades #4


Have two more to do today...  None LARP but thought I would get them down for posterity...

Seems that the person who bought the boat will be coming to collect it on Sunday - they have a job in Pembrokeshire and can pick it up on the way back it seems so will have to go to the Warehouse today to move the tariler - swap it with the boat and check the boat over - it has been in the lock-up for a couple of ears - so will check it all out...

Will also have to check on the progress of the rotovator ...
Not so sunny today - so will be a day for doing some work - not too much - but some !!

Cheers !




Thursday, 16 April 2020

16th April 2020 - Corporations, Videos and a few Obervations

Thought for the day :"My friend the magician lost his magic – we call him ian now !!"


LINK JOHNS HOPKINS
Office of National Statistics 

They came to pick up the scrub bags this morning - so Susie waiting on the material to arive to start onthe  scrubs themselves. She is in the sewing room at the moment putting the pattern together - it came in PDF form on 48 pages - so she has to cut them all up and stick them together to get a proper pattern - still better than wasting a forest and postage...

Seems that the pattern many have been using was designed for Male and no-one noticed that most ladies are wider around the hips - and many have not been able to be used by the female nurses - but she has the right version so all should be well.

Another lovely sunny day - so have been out and cleared the duck pen and changed the pond water, cleaned the solar fountain and cleared teh dog poo. Had breakfast and all is wellwith the world....

Sorted the BT Basic for Vic it seems - and there was an answerphone message on my mobile to apologise for delays and say that they have fixed it all now..  Also the DWP seem to have failed to get Vic's pension into the bank this mornign - but an email to warn me of the overdraft should stop additional bills. May have to chase them up tomorrow. My problems are nothing by comparison to those trying to get Universal Credit or Government Bail Out!!

Completed another video yesterday - this time the "Sloop John A" - by Les Barker..


Sloop John A

Think I will try to get one a day done for the next few days....

Saw this advert for Chinese Quality Street selection box...


For the Trekkies...

Milkshake will never be the same again ..

My Retired Police Friend made this obervation...
"Quarantine has turned us all into dogs. We roam the house all day looking for food. We are told NO if we get too close to strangers. We get over excited about car rides."

Personally I am looking forward to Thursday - we get to put the bins out - I am not sure what I am going to wear!



and so - back to work ---

with a maiden's Cream of course



Cheers !



Wednesday, 15 April 2020

15th April 2020 - Fighting City Hall and Bubble Wrap

Thought for the day :"How do so many people get simple sayings wrong? Answers on a coastguard please...."


LINK JOHNS HOPKINS
Office of National Statistics (new figures)

Short of bubble wrap this morning as Susie has been selling so much on Ebay.so had a quick trip across to the Warehouse - looking a right mess - but managed to get some wrap. On the way back saw that Paul the mechanic was in so popped in to see him and he agreed to have a look at the rotovator. Took it around and tried a quick pull on the starter rope - and lo and behold it started !!!

Didn't keep going though - so there is still a need to have a look at it, and left it with him...

So, back to the grind again - BT have sent a message back saying that they cannot proceed with the application for Vic to have BT Basic as I sent them a copy application. They seem to have forgotten that they have the orginal - which is why I sent the copy to show that I applied back in March...  Ho hum - will have totrythe intertweb and see if I can chase what he has on line....

Still , now that we have found an alternative place for him to live it will probably get sorted after we have left!  

Okay BT Basic now set up as of today - and a refund for the last month - calls will cost 15p a minute - but the monthly rental is £5.75 including £1.50 in calls, and capped at £10 so should be better witha maximum worse case scenario of £15.75 a month .....  Normal should be about £6 I think .. Now onto EE tio find out why the mobile phone will not take incoming calls.... 

All go today .....

In other news - saw this neat idea for wine storage...


A nice wooden Staircase..


With drawers to open..


as a wine rack !!!

I approve of this ...

and of this - Daleks sing Gilbert and Sullivan.. Oh Yes!



So - did a couple of videos in the "Crimson Moon" Basement - "Wizard's Knob" and the "Sloop John A"  - adding them to youtube now .... Did a Facebook version and now adding the top and tail for Youtube ...  

Susie has started making scrub bags for the local NHS - still waiting on the material to arrive to start on the scrubs themselves...  



Ordered some nice bottle brushes as susie had lost her ones and she was making wine for me and it seemed only the right thing to do - arrived today - I thought they were good value - a set of 6 for under £4.   I realise why now - when they gave the size - I thought it was the size of the brush area - about 6 inches - which was the size of the lost brush - came back - they were 6" in total - the brush part was only one ince long - not much good for doing the bottles - had to revert to a Susie to get the correct size - I tried !!!

New Cover Picture and Profile .. seemed appropriate ...




So - will add the videos when completed - and for now ..


The Wizard 's Staff


Cheers !






   

Tuesday, 14 April 2020

14th April 2020 - No movement on Houses...

Thought for the day: "Thieves have stolen all the road signs in West Yorkshire. Police are looking for Leeds."


LINK JOHNS HOPKINS
Office of National Statistics (new figures)


Back from the Bank Holiday and no movement on the solicitors. Contacted my Premier Property and managed to speak to someone in the office - but not a conveyancer - so asked for someone to phone the solicitors but have no way of knowing what may happen. 
Left a message for the Purple Bricks Agent in case they can gee things up - buit only going to answerphone so I am presuming she is not working at the moment.
All very frustrating .. as we are now on the dates that they were execting to complete. Ho Hum 

Sunny day though a little cold today ... 
Managed to do my video of teh Maiden's Cream story and hoping to have it as a Video Wtach later on this evening - not sure how that wokrs but will find out today ...



In other news ...  Trump has declared war on the media - no change there - has claimed that he has ultimate authority to re-open the USA - despite the governors, that will be an interesting one to watch....  here we get some statisticis whic start to sho w how bad things are in the Care Homes...
Luckily - we still have Vic isolated in Burry Port, though we have now shown him the new complex up in Llanybyther and he is excited about a move when safe..... 



I need to head out today to try to get my prescription drugs renewed, also have a pile of drugs we have discovered in clear down to hand back to the chemist. Not sure where they came from but all out of date.

Saw this litle missive - though in reality people are now starting to keep home - not sure how long it will last. France has shut down until May 11th. Don't think that we are saying any dates...


In other news - we have bought 30 metres of cotton so Susie can start making Scrubs - we have foudn that much of the material is not available - so she has gone for bottle green for Paramedics and we think we have found some blue for nurses. 



Thought this was quite apt for the Easter seasion ...

And so we are just sending a message to stay at home ..



 Cheers :




Monday, 13 April 2020

13th April 2020 - Bank Holiday Monday - and UK Timeline

Thought for the day :"My friend fell into a vat of curry. He’s in a korma."

LINK JOHNS HOPKINS
Office of National Statistics

Well, having lambasted the US over the last few days - it is time to have a closer look at the time scale in the uk and the missed opportunities that have led us to where we are today...

Ian Sinclair and Rupert Read original in the Byline Times...
(for bias : Rupert is is an academic and a Green Party campaigner and a spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion. Ian Sinclair is a freelance writer based in London, UK.)

But a summary here for posterity... as news often changes later.. (my red highlighting)

October 2016: Exercise Cygnus, a three-day training on how to deal with a pandemic, is carried out, involving all major government departments, the NHS and local authorities. “It showed gaping holes in Britain’s Emergency Preparedness, Resilience and Response plan.” A report on the exercise has never been published, with a senior former government source with direct involvement saying the findings were deemed “too terrifying” to be revealed. A senior academic directly involved in Exercise Cygnus and the current pandemic said: “These exercises are supposed to prepare government for something like this – but it appears they were aware of the problem but didn’t do much about it.” (Sunday Telegraph)

14 September 2017: National Risk Register Of Civil Emergencies published by the Cabinet Office. The report notes “there is a high probability of a flu pandemic occurring” with “up to 50% of the UK population experiencing symptoms, potentially leading to between 20,000 and 750,000 fatalities and high levels of absence from work.” (Cabinet Office)

30 July 2018: UK biological security strategy published, addressing the threat of pandemics. It “was not properly implemented, according to a former government chief scientific advisor… Prof Sir Ian Boyd, who advised the environment department for seven years until last August and was involved in writing the strategy, said a lack of resources was to blame.” (Guardian)

2 January 2020: “Chinese authorities have launched an investigation into a mysterious viral pneumonia which has infected dozens of people in the central city of Wuhan.” (BBC News)

Mid-January 2020: “From about mid-January onwards, it was absolutely obvious that this was serious, very serious”, notes John Edmunds, a professor of infectious disease modelling and a key adviser to the government. (Reuters)

21 January 2020: “China’s health ministry has confirmed human-to-human transmission of a mysterious Sars-like virus that has spread across the country and fuelled anxiety about the prospect of a major outbreak as millions begin travelling for lunar new year celebrations.” (Guardian)


23 January 2020: China implements a lockdown in Wuhan province, the centre of the outbreak. All transport into and out of the city is stopped (with no exceptions even for personal and medical emergencies), shops, schools and universities are closed, public transport halted, and private vehicles barred from the roads without special permission. (Guardian)

24 January 2020: A group of Chinese doctors and scientists publish an article in the Lancet medical journal titled ‘Clinical Features of Patients Infected With 2019 Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China’ (Lancet). According to Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, the study showed “that a third of patients require admission to intensive care, and 29% get so bad that they need ventilation.” (Guardian)

26 January 2020: Nassim Taleb and two colleagues publish a note with the New England Complex Systems Institute urging a robust precautionary response to the outbreak. “Policy- and decision-makers must act swiftly and avoid the fallacy that to have an appropriate respect for uncertainty in the face of possible irreversible catastrophe amounts to ‘paranoia,’ or the converse a belief that nothing can be done”, they conclude. (New England Complex Systems Institute)

30 January 2020: The World Health Organisation (WHO) declares coronavirus a “public health emergency of international concern”.  (Guardian)

31 January 2020: Professor Joseph Wu, from the School of Public Health at the University of Hong Kong, co-authors an article in the Lancet medical journal about the coronavirus outbreak in China. The authors note “Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally” (Lancet).  
“British officials took part in four meetings where EU projects to bulk-buy medical kit were discussed – the earliest in January, according to official minutes … At this [31 January 2020] meeting, four EU member states said the virus could require increased stocks in Europe of personal protective equipment (PPE) such as gloves, masks and goggles, and the commission said it was ready to help if asked… the UK had decided not to participate in any of four EU procurement schemes to buy medical equipment in response to the coronavirus crisis.” (Guardian)

13 February 2020: Between 13 February and 30 March the UK misses a total of eight conference calls or meetings about coronavirus between EU heads of state or health ministers. (Reuters)

24 February 2020: At a press conference in Beijing the WHO-China Joint Mission on COVID-19 highlights how China “rolled out probably the most ambitious, and I would say, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history” to fight the spread of coronavirus (WHO). Rupert Read sends a briefing to a senior member of the Government, urging the adoption of the kind of strong precautionary measures laid out in Taleb et al’s 24 January note. The government response to Read is non-committal. 

26 February 2020: A memo from the Government’s National Security Communications Team warns that in a worst-case-scenario half a million Britons could die from coronavirus. (Mirror)

2 March 2020: The SPI-M  committee, an official committee set up to model the spread of pandemic flu, publishes a report noting up to four-fifths of the population could be infected and one in a hundred might die – “that was a prediction of over 500,000 deaths in this nation of nearly 70 million” (Reuters). The government holds its first emergency COBRA meeting (the government’s emergency response committee) on coronavirus. Prime Minister Boris Johnson states the country is “very, very well-prepared”. (Sky News)

3 March 2020: “Prime Minister Boris Johnson said… that coronavirus would not stop him greeting people with a handshake, adding that he had shaken the hands of everyone at a hospital where infected patients were being treated” (Reuters). During the press conference the Prime Minister said “Our country remains extremely well prepared. We already have a fantastic NHS, fantastic testing systems and fantastic surveillance of the spread of disease.” 
However, “the upbeat tone of that briefing stood in sharp contrast with the growing unease of many of the government’s scientific advisers behind the scenes. They were already convinced that Britain was on the brink of a disastrous outbreak”. (Reuters)

4 March 2020: “The government has been accused of withholding information about the spread of Coronavirus after a 70% increase in confirmed cases prompted health officials to stop providing daily updates on the location of new infections.” (Guardian) 

5 March 2020: The Prime Minister floats the idea of “herd immunity” on ITV’s This Morning, saying “one of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures” (This Morning). 
Professor Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer, tells the Commons Health Committee “One of the things which is clear, if you model out the epidemic, is you will get 50% of all the cases over a three-week period and 95% of the cases over a nine-week period, if it follows the trajectory we think it’s likely to.” One scenario could involve a “huge number” of cases “overtopping the ability of the NHS realistically to put everybody in beds”. (Guardian)

7 March 2020: Rupert Read publishes a briefing setting out what a precautionary approach to the outbreak would look like, having sent it to a senior member of the government on 24 February. The briefing urges immediate implementation of measures such as shutting down of most air travel, treating cold and flu symptoms presumptively as coronavirus symptoms and shutting down places where the old or medically-vulnerable are likely to exposed to the virus. (Rupert Read)

Early-mid March 2020: In the face of government inaction, large numbers of institutions, organisations and individuals across the UK move to cancel or postpone public events, or hold them remotely, including the Six Nations Championship and the Premier League. (Independent)

9 March 2020: A report from the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, SAGE, recommends, with no dissension recorded in its summary, that the UK reject a China-style lockdown. (Reuters)

10-13 March 2020: The government allows the Cheltenham Festival to take place, with over 60,000 people attending each day. Since then a number of racegoers have been diagnosed with coronavirus. (Guardian)

10 March 2020: “The government was accused of playing roulette with the public by the editor-in-chief of the Lancet medical journal. Dr Richard Horton called for the ‘urgent implementation of social distancing and closure policies’.” (Guardian)

11 March 2020: WHO declares a coronavirus pandemic. 
The government allows the UEFA Champions League football match between Liverpool and Atlético Madrid to go ahead at Anfield stadium in Liverpool. 54,000 people attend the game, including 3,000 fans from Spain. Spain closed its schools on 10 March 2020 (Guardian). 
NHS England says there are plans to increase coronavirus testing to 10,000 a day (NHS England). 
Dr David Halpern, the Head of the Number 10 ‘Nudge Unit’, tells the BBC “There is going to be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows as we think it probably will do, where you’ll want to cocoon, you’ll want to protect those at-risk group so that they basically don’t catch the disease and by the time they come out of their cocooning herd immunity has been achieved in the rest of the population” (Guardian). 
“The [unpublished] modelling from Imperial College that underpinned the government’s belief that the nation could ride out the epidemic by letting the infection sweep through, creating ‘herd immunity’ on the way, was… troubling”, the Guardian’s Science Editor noted. “The model, based on 13-year-old code for a long-feared influenza pandemic, assumed that the demand for intensive care units would be the same for both infections. Data from China soon showed this to be dangerously wrong, but the model was only updated when more data poured out of Italy, where intensive care was swiftly overwhelmed and deaths shot up”. (Guardian)

12 March 2020: Addressing the “question of banning major public events such as sporting fixtures” the Prime Minister says “The scientific advice as we’ve said over the last couple of weeks is that banning such events will have little effect on the spread” (Prime Minister’s Office, 10 Downing Street). 
The government announces it will “no longer try to ‘track and trace’ everyone suspected of having the virus. Instead, under plans outlined by the Prime Minister and his medical and scientific advisers, testing would be limited to patients in hospital with serious breathing problems” (Guardian). 
The WHO’s director-general makes his opening remarks at the mission briefing on COVID-19: “We are deeply concerned that some countries are not approaching this threat with the level of political commitment needed to control it. Let me be clear: describing this as a pandemic does not mean that countries should give up. The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous” (WHO). The Guardian reports that as of 12 March “almost every country [in Europe] had deployed nationwide or regional school closures”. The UK’s schools remain open. (Guardian)

13 March 2020: “Mass gatherings are to be banned across the UK from next weekend, the government has announced after Boris Johnson’s cautious approach to the coronavirus outbreak was overtaken by care homes, sporting bodies and even the Queen taking matters into their own hands” (Guardian). 
The government’s chief science adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, tells BBC Radio 4 Today programme that one of “the key things we need to do” is to “build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission” (Vox). 
Interviewing Sir Patrick on Sky News about the herd immunity strategy, presenter Stephen Dixon says “even looking at the best case scenario… 0.5-1 percent fatality in something like this, that’s an awful lot of people dying in this country” (Sky News). 
Professor Graham Medley, who leads the government’s disease modelling team, tells BBC Newsnight “We are going to have to generate what is called herd immunity… and the only way of developing that in the absence of infection is for the majority of the population to become infected” (BBC Newsnight). 
The WHO’s director general says all possible action should be taken: “Not testing alone. Not contact tracing alone. Not quarantine alone. Not social distancing alone. Do it all” (Guardian). 
“Anthony Costello, a paediatrician and former World Health Organization director, said that the UK government was out of kilter with other countries in looking to herd immunity as the answer. It could conflict with WHO policy, he said in a series of Twitter posts, which is to contain the virus by tracking and tracing all cases” (Guardian). 
BBC News reports on a new study of more than 44,000 cases of Covid-19, based on data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.  The study puts “the overall death rate of the Covid-19 virus at 2.3%.” (BBC News)

14 March 2020: WHO spokeswoman, Margaret Harris, questions the UK government’s decision to follow a herd immunity response to the outbreak, telling BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “We don’t know enough about the science of this virus, it hasn’t been in our population for long enough for us to know what it does in immunological terms” (Guardian). 
More than 200 scientists sign an open letter to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19, noting the UK’s current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and “risk many more lives than necessary” (BBC News). 
Six senior health experts, including Richard Horton, the editor-in-chief of the Lancet, and Devi Shridhar, professor public health at the University of Edinburgh, publish a letter in the Times, noting there is “no clear indication that the UK’s response is being informed by experiences of other countries”. The letter urges the government to share the scientific evidence being used to inform policy, rather than acting on the basis of modelling that is being kept secret (Times).  
The British Society for Immunology publishes an open letter to the government with “significant questions” about the herd immunity plan: “this strategy only works to reduce serious disease if, when building that immunity, vulnerable individuals are protected from becoming ill, for example through social distancing… we don’t yet know if this novel virus will induce long-term immunity in those affected as other related viruses do not”. (British Society for Immunology) 

15 March 2020: “When I first heard about this, I could not believe it… my colleagues here in the US… assumed that reports of the UK policy were satire”, notes William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard University, writing in the Guardian about the UK government’s herd immunity plan. “The UK should not be trying to create herd immunity, that will take care of itself. Policy should be directed at slowing the outbreak to a (more) manageable rate. What this looks like is strong social distancing… All this and more should have started weeks ago.” (Guardian)

Mid-March 2020: A Reuters investigation into the government’s response notes that “Interviews and records published so far suggest that the scientific committees that advised [Prime Minister] Johnson didn’t study, until mid-March, the option of the kind of stringent lockdown adopted early on in China”. (Reuters)

16 March 2020: The Imperial College team advising the government publishes a report that predicts “unconstrained, the virus could kill 510,000 people” and “even the government’s ‘mitigation’ approach could lead to 250,000 deaths and intensive care units being overwhelmed at least eight times over”, Reuters reports. “Imperial’s prediction of over half a million deaths was no different from the report by the government’s own pandemic modelling committee two weeks earlier” (Reuters).
The Prime Minister urges the public to avoid all unnecessary contact and travel and to not visit pubs and theatres, “following expert modelling which suggests the approach could cut the estimated coronavirus death toll from 260,000 to 20,000” (Guardian). 
The Guardian reports on the government’s partial U-turn: “What changed was new data on the impact of Italy’s out-of-control epidemic on its health service. Basically, it is catastrophic, with 30% of hospitalised patients having to be admitted to intensive care” (Guardian). 
“We have a simple message for all countries: test, test, test. Test every suspected case” and “if they test positive, isolate them and find out who they have been in close contact with… and test those people too”, says the WHO Director General. (BBC News). 
“While the UK has carried out about 44,000 tests, South Korea had by Saturday tested more than 248,647 people – one in every 200 citizens – and Italy 86,011, including anyone who might have been exposed to the virus, as well as those with symptoms.” (Guardian)

17 March 2020: As of 17 March the Guardian reports “only the UK and Belarus [in the whole of Europe] had held off implementing full or partial closures” of schools. The UK’s schools remain open (Guardian). 
An open letter organised by Rupert Read is published in the Daily Mail, co-signed by 26 people including former House of Commons Select Committee Chair Ian Gibson, George Monbiot, Chris Packham and Peter Tatchell, urging the government forthwith to institute quarantining policies, compel most firms to ensure workers work from home, introduce physical distancing policies, roll out mass testing and give sick pay to those on zero hours contracts. (Daily Mail)

18 March 2020: “Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO’s director general, has again called on every country to adopt its recommended strategy. The only way to slow the pandemic sufficiently to give time for treatments and a vaccine to become available is to test everyone who has symptoms and track and isolate their contacts, he said” (Guardian). 
“The UK’s best scientists have known since that first report from China that Covid-19 was a lethal illness. Yet they did too little, too late”, Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of the Lancet, writes in the Guardian. “Something has gone badly wrong in the way the UK has handled Covid-19… there was a collective failure among politicians and perhaps even government experts to recognise the signals that Chinese and Italian scientists were sending” (Guardian). 
The Prime Minister announces the ambition of carrying out 25,000 tests per day. 5,779 tests are carried out on 18 March. (Guardian)

20 March 2020: All schools are closed by the government (Guardian). 
The Prime Minister announces all cafes, pubs, bars, clubs, restaurants, gyms, leisure centres, nightclubs, theatres and cinemas must close tonight (Guardian). 
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jenny Harries says “The country has a perfectly adequate supply of PPE [Personal Protective Equipment]” and that supply pressures had now been “completely resolved”. (Pulse)

23 March 2020: The Prime Minister announces a strict national lockdown, with people ordered to stay at home, except for shopping for basic necessities, one form of exercise a day, medical need, to provide care or travelling to and from work if it is absolutely necessary. (Guardian) 

24 March 2020: BBC presenter Victoria Derbyshire speaks to the director of a UK company that makes protective equipment who said they’re exporting all over the world but haven’t had orders from the UK government. “We actually offered our services [to the UK government] when this first happened and unfortunately our services wasn’t taken up, but the rest of the world did take it up”, the director notes. (Stefan Simanowitz)

25 March 2020: BBC Newsnight interviews Andrew Raynor, CEO of a ventilator manufacturer. “You got in touch with the government as soon as they put out the call for help a few weeks ago. What happened then?”, asks presenter Emily Maitlis. “Nothing quite honestly”, the CEO replies (Stefan Simanowitz). 
The Prime Minister states “we are going up from 5,000 to 10,000 tests per day, to 25,000, hopefully very soon up to 250,000 per day.” 6,583 tests are carried out on 25 March 2020. (Guardian)

26 March 2020: Speaking about why the government has eased up on what initially seemed to be a concerted contact tracing and quarantining effort, Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jenny Harries tells reporters “There comes a point in a pandemic where that is not an appropriate intervention”, and that the testing focus would shift to patients and health workers (Financial Times). 
Responding to the WHO’s “message for all countries: test, test, test”, Harries says “We need to realise the clue for WHO is in its title. It is a world health organisation. And it is addressing all countries across the world with entirely different health infrastructures, and particularly public health infrastructures. We have an extremely well-developed public health system… the point there is they are addressing every country, including low and middle income countries.” (BBC News)

1 April 2020: Speaking from isolation in 11 Downing Street, the Prime Minister says “I want to say a special word about testing, because it is so important, and as I have said for weeks and weeks, this is the way through. This is how we will unlock the coronavirus puzzle. This is how we will defeat it in the end” (BBC News). 
Interviewed on ITV News Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van Tam says that testing “is a bit of a side issue to be truthful with you” (ITV News). 
The government confirms that only 2,000 people out of 500,000 frontline NHS England workers had been tested for coronavirus so far – 0.4 percent. 9,793 tests are carried out on 1 April 2020. (Guardian)

2 April 2020: “Dr Chaand Nagpaul, chair of council at the British Medical Association, said the doctors’ union had heard concerns from physicians in more than 30 hospital trusts about [Personal Protective Equipment] shortages… Reports have been rife of shortages and large variations in the level of PPE available. Pictures of healthcare workers who have created their own makeshift protective equipment out of bin bags and other materials have proved embarrassing for the government and NHS leaders. Staff have also improvised masks out of snorkels, bought kit from hardware stores, and used school science goggles to protect themselves” (Guardian). 
Admitting the government has made mistakes on testing, Health Secretary Matt Hancock announces the government is aiming to carry out 100,000 coronavirus tests a day in England by the end of April (BBC News). 
“It is good to finally hear the explanation from the minister of health about the difficulties in scaling up testing. This is down to a lack of preparedness in advance of a pandemic, which then impacts upon the ability to greatly and rapidly increase a national response”, notes Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at University of Southampton. (Guardian)

3 April 2020: “Hospitals could be left without enough medical ventilators at the height of the UK coronavirus outbreak, with manufacturers struggling to build thousands of new machines in time for the likely mid-April peak in cases.” A source tells the Guardian that it was impossible to “produce into the peak… we should have started doing this weeks ago” (Guardian). 
In a joint press release from the British Medical Association, Royal College of Nursing (RCN), Unite and UNISON, RCN chief executive and general secretary Dame Donna Kinnair notes “Weeks into this crisis, it is completely unacceptable that nursing staff, wherever they work, have not been provided with PPE. I am hearing from nurses who are treating patients in Covid-19 wards without any protection at all. This cannot continue.” (BMA) 

5 April 2020: 13,069 tests are carried out in the UK (excluding Northern Ireland) on 5 April (Department of Health and Social Care). 
The UK has carried out 195,524 tests, in contrast to at least 918,000 completed a week earlier in Germany. (Reuters)

6 April 2020: “The government has been accused of missing an opportunity after it failed to deploy 5,000 contact tracing experts employed by councils to help limit the spread of coronavirus. Environmental health workers in local government have wide experience in contact tracing, a process used to prevent infections spreading and routinely carried out in outbreaks such as of norovirus, salmonella or legionnaires’ disease… PHE’s [Pubic Health England] contact tracing response team was boosted to just under 300 staff, deemed adequate for the containment phase of handling the Covid-19 virus up to mid-March… tracing was scaled back when the UK moved to the delay phase of tackling coronavirus in mid-March… in Germany, thousands of contact tracers are still working – with more being recruited”. (Guardian)

7 April 2020: “Lack of personal protective equipment continues to be a critical issue. It is heartbreaking to hear that some staff have been told to simply ‘hold their breath’ due to lack of masks”, says Dr Samantha Batt-Rawden, president of the Doctors’ Association UK (Guardian). 
“World-leading disease data analysts have projected that the UK will become the country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, accounting for more than 40% of total deaths across the continent. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak” (Guardian). 
“Leaked recordings of a Home Office conference… reveal that the Government has all but given up in its fight against the Coronavirus and is intent on simply finding ‘a method of managing it within the population’. The recordings show Home Office Deputy Science Advisor Rupert Shute stating repeatedly that the Government believes ‘we will all get’ COVID-19 eventually. The call further implied that the Government now considers hundreds of thousands of deaths unavoidable over a long-term period consisting of multiple peaks of the disease.” (Byline Times)

8 April 2020: The UK reaches the highest number of recorded daily deaths from coronavirus: 938 (Guardian). 
The government’s published figures are certainly an underestimate, as they exclude those dying at home and in care homes (Times), 
as well as the likely large increase in indirect deaths (“excess mortality”) resulting from a significant drop in the number of people attending A&E (Independent) 
and the unavailability of doctors, beds and vital treatment for those suffering from other conditions besides coronavirus (Guardian). 
The UK media coverage of the crisis however is dominated by none of this but rather by the Prime Minister’s own hospitalisation. (ITV News)

10 April 2020: The U.K. reaches a new record high, of 980 recorded daily deaths from coronavirus from those tested and dying in hospitals. This number is higher than any daily maximum recorded in Italy (or any other European country) during the entire pandemic to date, and places the UK’s per capita death rate from coronavirus as probably the highest in the world (European CDC/Twitter). 
The BBC news coverage leads with Boris Johnson sitting up in bed and taking short walks, and on the Government’s alleged “Herculean” efforts to secure enough PPE for the NHS frontline staff who are becoming infected with COVID-19 in record numbers (BBC/Twitter).

11th April onwards...  

In other news Tim Brooke Taylor dies with Covid 19...  Farewell to him


Once passing daily Trumpton...


Happy Easter Monday ...
Keep safe out there ....

Cheers !